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JSK vs Motema Pembe — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
0 – 0
Motema Pembe
Motema Pembe
3/22/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

JSK36%
×Draw31%
Motema Pembe33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.04
Motema Pembe
0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Motema Pembe
1.14

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Motema Pembe
0.94

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Motema Pembe+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Motema Pembe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSK or draw
67%
JSK or Motema Pembe
69%
Draw or Motema Pembe
64%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
14%
Motema Pembe wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
65%
JSK 2+ goals
28%
JSK 3+ goals
9%
Motema Pembe 1+ goals
63%
Motema Pembe 2+ goals
26%
Motema Pembe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
52%
Motema Pembe (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Motema Pembe away — creates 1.14, concedes 0.94 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Motema Pembe defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Motema Pembe attack 1.14 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JSK scores more
36%
level
31%
Motema Pembe scores more
33%

JSK at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSK 0 – 0 Motema Pembe

JSK and Motema Pembe drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on March 22, 2025.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.