Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

JSK vs Maniema Union — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
CANC
12:00
Maniema Union
Maniema Union
7/2/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 17Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

JSK29%
×Draw30%
Maniema Union41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
0.92
Maniema Union
1.14

Maniema Union creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 93 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Maniema Union
1.42

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Maniema Union
0.70

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Maniema Union+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Maniema Union →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSK or draw
59%
JSK or Maniema Union
70%
Draw or Maniema Union
71%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
10%
Maniema Union wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
60%
JSK 2+ goals
23%
JSK 3+ goals
7%
Maniema Union 1+ goals
68%
Maniema Union 2+ goals
32%
Maniema Union 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
42%
Maniema Union (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Maniema Union away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Maniema Union defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.92

Maniema Union attack 1.42 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JSK scores more
29%
level
30%
Maniema Union scores more
41%

Maniema Union at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maniema Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JSK host Maniema Union

July 2, 2025: JSK take on Maniema Union in Ligue 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

JSK host Maniema Union at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.