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JSK vs Dauphins Noirs — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
1 – 0
Dauphins Noirs
Dauphins Noirs
5/22/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Championship Round - 6Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

JSK47%
×Draw29%
Dauphins Noirs24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.25
Dauphins Noirs
0.81

JSK creates 54% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 77 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Dauphins Noirs
0.78

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Dauphins Noirs
1.36

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Dauphins Noirs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Dauphins Noirs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

JSK or draw
76%
JSK or Dauphins Noirs
71%
Draw or Dauphins Noirs
53%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
21%
Dauphins Noirs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
71%
JSK 2+ goals
36%
JSK 3+ goals
13%
Dauphins Noirs 1+ goals
56%
Dauphins Noirs 2+ goals
19%
Dauphins Noirs 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
66%
Dauphins Noirs (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Dauphins Noirs away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.36 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Dauphins Noirs defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dauphins Noirs attack 0.78 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

JSK scores more
47%
level
29%
Dauphins Noirs scores more
24%

JSK at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JSK 1–0 Dauphins Noirs

JSK beat Dauphins Noirs 1-0 in Ligue 1 on May 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stade des Martyrs de la Pentecôte in Kinshasa.