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JSK vs Céleste — Ligue 1 2019

JSK
JSK
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Céleste
Céleste
4/14/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

JSK41%
×Draw31%
Céleste29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JSK
1.11
Céleste
0.88

JSK creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 44 away

creates per match

JSK
1.15
Céleste
0.91

allows per match

JSK
0.85
Céleste
1.07

finishing

JSK+0.00on par
Céleste+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JSK ↓

Céleste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JSK or draw
71%
JSK or Céleste
69%
Draw or Céleste
59%

Winning margin

JSK wins by 2+
17%
Céleste wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JSK 1+ goals
67%
JSK 2+ goals
30%
JSK 3+ goals
10%
Céleste 1+ goals
59%
Céleste 2+ goals
22%
Céleste 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JSK (draw refunded)
59%
Céleste (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JSK at home — creates 1.15, concedes 0.85 · 85 matches

Céleste away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JSK attack 1.15 + Céleste defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Céleste attack 0.91 + JSK defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JSK scores more
41%
level
31%
Céleste scores more
29%

JSK at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JSK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JSK 1 – 2 Céleste

Céleste beat JSK 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 14, 2026.