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JS Saoura vs USM Alger — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
USM Alger
USM Alger
4/26/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 24Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

JS Saoura54%
×Draw27%
USM Alger19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.46
USM Alger
0.74

JS Saoura creates 97% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 123 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.76
USM Alger
0.87

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
USM Alger
1.15

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
USM Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

USM Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
81%
JS Saoura or USM Alger
73%
Draw or USM Alger
46%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
28%
USM Alger wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
77%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
43%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
18%
USM Alger 1+ goals
52%
USM Alger 2+ goals
17%
USM Alger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
74%
USM Alger (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

USM Alger away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.15 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.76 + USM Alger defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.46

USM Alger attack 0.87 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

JS Saoura scores more
54%
level
27%
USM Alger scores more
19%

JS Saoura at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JS Saoura 2–1 USM Alger

JS Saoura beat USM Alger 2-1 in Ligue 1 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Bechar.