JS Saoura 1–0 NC Magra: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JS Saoura

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NC Magra

11/9/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 8Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

JS Saoura61%

×Draw24%

NC Magra15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS SaouraExpected goals in this matchNC Magra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

0.65

JS Saoura

1.63

NC Magra

0.65

JS Saoura creates 151% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

1.76

creates per match

0.68

0.62

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

JS Saoura

1.76

NC Magra

0.68

allows per match

JS Saoura

0.62

NC Magra

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par

NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

NC Magra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw

85%

JS Saoura or NC Magra

76%

Draw or NC Magra

39%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+

34%

NC Magra wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals

80%

JS Saoura 2+ goals

48%

JS Saoura 3+ goals

22%

NC Magra 1+ goals

48%

NC Magra 2+ goals

14%

NC Magra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)

81%

NC Magra (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.76 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

NC Magra attack 0.68 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

JS Saoura scores more

61%

level

24%

NC Magra scores more

15%

JS Saoura at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff