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JS Saoura vs Bordj BOU Arreridj — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Bordj BOU Arreridj
Bordj BOU Arreridj
2/7/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 12Stade du 20 Août 1955

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

JS Saoura65%
×Draw23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.70
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.57

JS Saoura creates 198% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.77
Bordj BOU Arreridj
0.53

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
Bordj BOU Arreridj
1.62

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
Bordj BOU Arreridj+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

Bordj BOU Arreridj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
88%
JS Saoura or Bordj BOU Arreridj
77%
Draw or Bordj BOU Arreridj
35%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
37%
Bordj BOU Arreridj wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
82%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
51%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
24%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 1+ goals
43%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 2+ goals
11%
Bordj BOU Arreridj 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
84%
Bordj BOU Arreridj (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 109 matches

Bordj BOU Arreridj away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.62 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.77 + Bordj BOU Arreridj defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.70

Bordj BOU Arreridj attack 0.53 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

JS Saoura scores more
65%
level
23%
Bordj BOU Arreridj scores more
12%

JS Saoura at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JS Saoura 2–0 Bordj BOU Arreridj

JS Saoura beat Bordj BOU Arreridj 2-0 in Ligue 1 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 in Bechar.