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JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ben Aknoun
Ben Aknoun
2/27/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 2120 August Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JS Saoura54%
×Draw26%
Ben Aknoun19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.50
Ben Aknoun
0.78

JS Saoura creates 92% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 30 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.76
Ben Aknoun
0.93

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
Ben Aknoun
1.23

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
Ben Aknoun+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

Ben Aknoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
81%
JS Saoura or Ben Aknoun
74%
Draw or Ben Aknoun
46%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
28%
Ben Aknoun wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
78%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
44%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
19%
Ben Aknoun 1+ goals
54%
Ben Aknoun 2+ goals
18%
Ben Aknoun 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
74%
Ben Aknoun (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Ben Aknoun away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.76 + Ben Aknoun defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.50

Ben Aknoun attack 0.93 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

JS Saoura scores more
54%
level
26%
Ben Aknoun scores more
19%

JS Saoura at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Saoura vs Ben Aknoun

JS Saoura beat Ben Aknoun 1-0 in Ligue 1 on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at 20 August Stadium in Bechar.