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JS Saoura vs AS AIN Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

JS Saoura
JS Saoura
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS AIN Mlila
AS AIN Mlila
2/8/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

JS Saoura63%
×Draw22%
AS AIN Mlila14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Saoura
1.79
AS AIN Mlila
0.70

JS Saoura creates 156% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 45 away

creates per match

JS Saoura
1.77
AS AIN Mlila
0.78

allows per match

JS Saoura
0.62
AS AIN Mlila
1.82

finishing

JS Saoura+0.00on par
AS AIN Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Saoura ↓

AS AIN Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

JS Saoura or draw
86%
JS Saoura or AS AIN Mlila
78%
Draw or AS AIN Mlila
37%

Winning margin

JS Saoura wins by 2+
37%
AS AIN Mlila wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

JS Saoura 1+ goals
83%
JS Saoura 2+ goals
53%
JS Saoura 3+ goals
26%
AS AIN Mlila 1+ goals
50%
AS AIN Mlila 2+ goals
16%
AS AIN Mlila 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Saoura (draw refunded)
82%
AS AIN Mlila (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Saoura at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.62 · 109 matches

AS AIN Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Saoura attack 1.77 + AS AIN Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.79

AS AIN Mlila attack 0.78 + JS Saoura defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

JS Saoura scores more
63%
level
22%
AS AIN Mlila scores more
14%

JS Saoura at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "JS Saoura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JS Saoura 2 – 1 AS AIN Mlila

JS Saoura beat AS AIN Mlila 2-1 in Ligue 1 on February 8, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 20 Août 1955 (Bechar).