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JS Kairouanaise vs Stade Tunisien — Ligue 2 2020

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
CANC
13:00
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
10/9/2021Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Group Stage - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

JS Kairouanaise36%
×Draw33%
Stade Tunisien31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
0.96
Stade Tunisien
0.86

JS Kairouanaise creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 8 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.42
Stade Tunisien
1.13

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.60
Stade Tunisien
0.50

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
69%
JS Kairouanaise or Stade Tunisien
67%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
64%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
13%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
62%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
25%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
7%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
58%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
21%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
54%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 1.13, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Stade Tunisien attack 1.13 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
36%
level
33%
Stade Tunisien scores more
31%

JS Kairouanaise at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: JS Kairouanaise host Stade Tunisien

October 9, 2021: JS Kairouanaise take on Stade Tunisien in Ligue 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.