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JS Kairouanaise vs Stade Tunisien — League #202 2026

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stade Tunisien
Stade Tunisien
S. Ameri 17'
Daniel 32'
J. Bessan 12'
11/29/2017League #202League #202 · Round 12Stade Hamda Laouani (Kairouan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

JS Kairouanaise33%
×Draw31%
Stade Tunisien36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
0.95
Stade Tunisien
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 63 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.91
Stade Tunisien
0.83

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.20
Stade Tunisien
0.98

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Stade Tunisien+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Stade Tunisien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
64%
JS Kairouanaise or Stade Tunisien
69%
Draw or Stade Tunisien
67%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
12%
Stade Tunisien wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
61%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
25%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
7%
Stade Tunisien 1+ goals
64%
Stade Tunisien 2+ goals
27%
Stade Tunisien 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
48%
Stade Tunisien (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.20 · 65 matches

Stade Tunisien away — creates 0.83, concedes 0.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.91 + Stade Tunisien defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.95

Stade Tunisien attack 0.83 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
33%
level
31%
Stade Tunisien scores more
36%

Stade Tunisien at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Stade Tunisien will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'
J. Bessan
17'
S. Ameri
32'
Daniel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #202: JS Kairouanaise 1–2 Stade Tunisien

Stade Tunisien beat JS Kairouanaise 2-1 in League #202 on November 29, 2017.

Goals: J. Bessan (12'), S. Ameri (17'), Daniel (32').

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani (Kairouan).