JS Kairouanaise 3–0 Sporting Ben Arous

JS Kairouanaise

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Sporting Ben Arous

M. Helali 44'

M. Kalai 32', 12'

10/28/2023

Ligue 2 · Round 4Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

JS Kairouanaise56%

×Draw28%

Sporting Ben Arous16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS KairouanaiseExpected goals in this matchSporting Ben Arous

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.57

JS Kairouanaise

1.34

Sporting Ben Arous

0.57

JS Kairouanaise creates 135% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 46 away

1.42

creates per match

0.54

0.60

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise

1.42

Sporting Ben Arous

0.54

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise

0.60

Sporting Ben Arous

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Sporting Ben Arous+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Sporting Ben Arous →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw

84%

JS Kairouanaise or Sporting Ben Arous

72%

Draw or Sporting Ben Arous

44%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

27%

Sporting Ben Arous wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

74%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

39%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

15%

Sporting Ben Arous 1+ goals

43%

Sporting Ben Arous 2+ goals

11%

Sporting Ben Arous 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

78%

Sporting Ben Arous (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Sporting Ben Arous away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Sporting Ben Arous defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sporting Ben Arous attack 0.54 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more

56%

level

28%

Sporting Ben Arous scores more

16%

JS Kairouanaise at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. Kalai

32'

M. Kalai

44'

M. Helali

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff