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JS Kairouanaise vs Etoile DU Sahel — Cup 2019

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Etoile DU Sahel
Etoile DU Sahel
Alkhali Bangoura 84'
Diogo 48', 13'
Z. Dhaouadi 15'
12/14/2016CupCup · 8th FinalsStade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JS Kairouanaise3%
×Draw14%
Etoile DU Sahel83%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
0.28
Etoile DU Sahel
2.28

Etoile DU Sahel creates 714% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 9 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.00
Etoile DU Sahel
1.89

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
2.67
Etoile DU Sahel
0.56

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Etoile DU Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Etoile DU Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–118%
0–220%
0–315%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (20%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
17%
JS Kairouanaise or Etoile DU Sahel
86%
Draw or Etoile DU Sahel
97%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
0%
Etoile DU Sahel wins by 2+
59%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
24%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
3%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
0%
Etoile DU Sahel 1+ goals
90%
Etoile DU Sahel 2+ goals
66%
Etoile DU Sahel 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
4%
Etoile DU Sahel (draw refunded)
96%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Etoile DU Sahel away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.00 + Etoile DU Sahel defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.28

Etoile DU Sahel attack 1.89 + JS Kairouanaise defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
3%
level
14%
Etoile DU Sahel scores more
83%

Etoile DU Sahel at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Etoile DU Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
Diogo
15'
Z. Dhaouadi
48'
Diogo
84'
Alkhali Bangoura

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: JS Kairouanaise 0–4 Etoile DU Sahel

Etoile DU Sahel beat JS Kairouanaise 4-0 in Cup on December 14, 2016.

Goals: Diogo (13', 48'), Z. Dhaouadi (15'), Alkhali Bangoura (84').

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.