ES Sahel 2–3 JS Kairouanaise: Result & Stats

ES Sahel

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

JS Kairouanaise

M. Anane 66'

G. Naouali 35'

M. Zairi 90'

A. Kanou 86' (pen)

I. Liouan 78'

9/16/2025

League #202 · Round 6Stade Olympique de Sousse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

ES Sahel58%

×Draw26%

JS Kairouanaise15%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ES SahelExpected goals in this matchJS Kairouanaise

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

0.61

ES Sahel

1.47

JS Kairouanaise

0.61

ES Sahel creates 141% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 46 away

1.35

creates per match

0.59

0.63

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

ES Sahel

1.35

JS Kairouanaise

0.59

allows per match

ES Sahel

0.63

JS Kairouanaise

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ES Sahel+0.00on par

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ES Sahel ↓

JS Kairouanaise →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

ES Sahel or draw

85%

ES Sahel or JS Kairouanaise

74%

Draw or JS Kairouanaise

42%

Winning margin

ES Sahel wins by 2+

30%

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

ES Sahel 1+ goals

77%

ES Sahel 2+ goals

43%

ES Sahel 3+ goals

18%

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

46%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

13%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

ES Sahel (draw refunded)

79%

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ES Sahel at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.63 · 40 matches

JS Kairouanaise away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ES Sahel attack 1.35 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.47

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.59 + ES Sahel defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

ES Sahel scores more

58%

level

26%

JS Kairouanaise scores more

15%

ES Sahel at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "ES Sahel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

43'

43'

45'

58'

59'

66'

70'

I. Liouan← F. Kayramani

70'

B. Jarrar← Z. Kada

75'

N. Al Qulaib← M. Anane

75'

M. Baayou← F. Ben Choug

78'

I. Liouan

82'

I. Liouan

85'

G. Naouali

86'

A. KanouPenalty

90+2'

90+8'

90+9'

90+9'

90'

M. Benmazouz← A. Diao

90+7'

M. Fatnassi← S. Naffati

90'

M. Zairi

ES

JS

22

2

3

5

7

23

27

▼

Naffati

28

▼

Kayramani

31

▼

Touray

9

⚽

Kanou

11

▼

Kada

32

Hessen

2

Omija

3

⚽

26

27

13

14

▼

Diao

18

▼

Cristo

25

▼

Choug

28

Aouani

30

⚽

▼

Anane

Manager: H. Daou

58'▲M. Senghor←▼Cristo

75'▲N. Al Qulaib←▼M. Anane

75'▲M. Baayou←▼F. Ben Choug

90'▲M. Benmazouz←▼A. Diao

ES Sahel substitutes

16Gazzeh4Bouzaabia8Qulaib19Bouslama20Baayou23Ouertani7Benmazouz11Senghor31Bah

Manager: L. Chriti

59'▲M. Zairi←▼B. Touray

70'▲I. Liouan←▼F. Kayramani

70'▲B. Jarrar←▼Z. Kada

90+7'▲M. Fatnassi←▼S. Naffati

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

32Hammami6Liouan17Lakhder30Fatnassi8Sallami18Jarrar10Zairi20Zairi26Ammar