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JS Kairouanaise vs Bembla — Ligue 2 2020

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Bembla
Bembla
10/29/2022Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 2Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

JS Kairouanaise66%
×Draw22%
Bembla12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
1.77
Bembla
0.58

JS Kairouanaise creates 205% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 16 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.42
Bembla
0.56

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.60
Bembla
2.13

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Bembla+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Bembla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
88%
JS Kairouanaise or Bembla
78%
Draw or Bembla
34%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
39%
Bembla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
83%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
53%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
26%
Bembla 1+ goals
44%
Bembla 2+ goals
12%
Bembla 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
85%
Bembla (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Bembla away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Bembla defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.77

Bembla attack 0.56 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
66%
level
22%
Bembla scores more
12%

JS Kairouanaise at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kairouanaise vs Bembla

JS Kairouanaise beat Bembla 2-1 in Ligue 2 on October 29, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.