JS Kairouanaise 2–1 AS Marsa: Result & Stats

JS Kairouanaise

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AS Marsa

A. Kanou 73'

E. Bekale 28'

G. Kalu 8'

9/11/2025

League #202 · Round 5Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JS Kairouanaise44%

×Draw32%

AS Marsa24%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS KairouanaiseExpected goals in this matchAS Marsa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

0.72

JS Kairouanaise

1.08

AS Marsa

0.72

JS Kairouanaise creates 50% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 4 away

0.91

creates per match

0.25

1.20

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise

0.91

AS Marsa

0.25

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise

1.20

AS Marsa

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

AS Marsa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

AS Marsa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw

76%

JS Kairouanaise or AS Marsa

68%

Draw or AS Marsa

56%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

18%

AS Marsa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

66%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

29%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

10%

AS Marsa 1+ goals

51%

AS Marsa 2+ goals

16%

AS Marsa 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

64%

AS Marsa (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.20 · 65 matches

AS Marsa away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 0.91 + AS Marsa defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

AS Marsa attack 0.25 + JS Kairouanaise defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more

44%

level

32%

AS Marsa scores more

24%

JS Kairouanaise at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

28'

46'

51'

60'

63'

63'

M. Traidi← M. Khaloui

63'

R. Gneba← M. Chaouch

64'

M. Ben Rajeh← Z. Kada

69'

I. Liouan← B. Touray

73'

A. Kanou

84'

M. Fatnassi← A. Kanou

84'

85'

87'

90+4'

JS

AS

23

5

6

17

10

▼

Jouini

21

Adejoh

27

▼

Khaloui

28

Hamida

29

▼

Neji

2

▼

Chaouch

30

⚽

▼

Kalu

1

Krir

2

▼

5

7

13

23

⚽

Bekale

27

Naffati

28

Kayramani

31

▼

Touray

9

⚽

▼

Kanou

11

▼

Kada

Manager: L. Chriti

64'▲M. Ben Rajeh←▼Z. Kada

69'▲I. Liouan←▼B. Touray

84'▲M. Fatnassi←▼A. Kanou

84'▲M. Zairi←▼M. Lakhal

JS Kairouanaise substitutes

22Bejaoui3Rajeh6Liouan14Baklouti17Lakhder30Fatnassi8Sallami18Jarrar10Zairi

Manager: C. Meftah

46'▲M. Kassi←▼A. Jouini

63'▲O. Traidi←▼F. Neji

63'▲M. Traidi←▼M. Khaloui

63'▲R. Gneba←▼M. Chaouch

85'▲A. Hadhri←▼G. Kalu

AS Marsa substitutes

1Abessi4Islem3Hichri11Traidi13Traidi15Gneba18Mansour7Kassi9Hadhri