JS Kairouanaise 1–1 AS Agareb: Result & Stats

JS Kairouanaise

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

AS Agareb

12/30/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 12Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

JS Kairouanaise59%

×Draw26%

AS Agareb15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS KairouanaiseExpected goals in this matchAS Agareb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.59

JS Kairouanaise

1.48

AS Agareb

0.59

JS Kairouanaise creates 151% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 26 away

1.42

creates per match

0.58

0.60

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise

1.42

AS Agareb

0.58

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise

0.60

AS Agareb

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par

AS Agareb+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

AS Agareb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw

85%

JS Kairouanaise or AS Agareb

74%

Draw or AS Agareb

41%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+

31%

AS Agareb wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals

77%

JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals

43%

JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals

19%

AS Agareb 1+ goals

45%

AS Agareb 2+ goals

12%

AS Agareb 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)

80%

AS Agareb (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

AS Agareb away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + AS Agareb defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.48

AS Agareb attack 0.58 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more

59%

level

26%

AS Agareb scores more

15%

JS Kairouanaise at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff