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JS Kairouanaise vs Ariana — Ligue 2 2020

JS Kairouanaise
JS Kairouanaise
FT
0 – 1
Ariana
Ariana
4/28/2024Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 20Stade Hamda Laouani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

JS Kairouanaise57%
×Draw25%
Ariana18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kairouanaise
1.56
Ariana
0.74

JS Kairouanaise creates 111% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 38 away

creates per match

JS Kairouanaise
1.42
Ariana
0.89

allows per match

JS Kairouanaise
0.60
Ariana
1.71

finishing

JS Kairouanaise+0.00on par
Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kairouanaise ↓

Ariana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Kairouanaise or draw
82%
JS Kairouanaise or Ariana
75%
Draw or Ariana
43%

Winning margin

JS Kairouanaise wins by 2+
30%
Ariana wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JS Kairouanaise 1+ goals
79%
JS Kairouanaise 2+ goals
46%
JS Kairouanaise 3+ goals
21%
Ariana 1+ goals
52%
Ariana 2+ goals
17%
Ariana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JS Kairouanaise (draw refunded)
76%
Ariana (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kairouanaise at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.60 · 43 matches

Ariana away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.71 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kairouanaise attack 1.42 + Ariana defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ariana attack 0.89 + JS Kairouanaise defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

JS Kairouanaise scores more
57%
level
25%
Ariana scores more
18%

JS Kairouanaise at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JS Kairouanaise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 2: JS Kairouanaise 0–1 Ariana

Ariana beat JS Kairouanaise 1-0 in Ligue 2 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Hamda Laouani in Kairouan.