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JS Kabylie vs USM Bel Abbes — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
USM Bel Abbes
USM Bel Abbes
3/5/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 (Tizi-Ouzou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

JS Kabylie58%
×Draw25%
USM Bel Abbes17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.56
USM Bel Abbes
0.70

JS Kabylie creates 123% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 46 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
USM Bel Abbes
0.61

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
USM Bel Abbes
1.74

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
USM Bel Abbes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

USM Bel Abbes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
83%
JS Kabylie or USM Bel Abbes
75%
Draw or USM Bel Abbes
42%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
31%
USM Bel Abbes wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
79%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
46%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
21%
USM Bel Abbes 1+ goals
50%
USM Bel Abbes 2+ goals
16%
USM Bel Abbes 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
78%
USM Bel Abbes (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

USM Bel Abbes away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + USM Bel Abbes defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.56

USM Bel Abbes attack 0.61 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
58%
level
25%
USM Bel Abbes scores more
17%

JS Kabylie at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JS Kabylie 2 – 0 USM Bel Abbes

JS Kabylie beat USM Bel Abbes 2-0 in Ligue 1 on March 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 (Tizi-Ouzou).