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JS Kabylie vs US Biskra — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
US Biskra
US Biskra
4/12/2025Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 22Stade Hocine Aït Ahmed

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

JS Kabylie54%
×Draw27%
US Biskra19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.44
US Biskra
0.72

JS Kabylie creates 100% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 92 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
US Biskra
0.64

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
US Biskra
1.50

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
US Biskra+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

US Biskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
81%
JS Kabylie or US Biskra
73%
Draw or US Biskra
46%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
27%
US Biskra wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
76%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
42%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
18%
US Biskra 1+ goals
51%
US Biskra 2+ goals
16%
US Biskra 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
74%
US Biskra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

US Biskra away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + US Biskra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

US Biskra attack 0.64 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
54%
level
27%
US Biskra scores more
19%

JS Kabylie at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JS Kabylie 0 – 0 US Biskra

JS Kabylie and US Biskra drew 0-0 in Ligue 1 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Hocine Aït Ahmed in Tizi Ouzou.