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JS Kabylie vs RC Relizane — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
RC Relizane
RC Relizane
12/24/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 9Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

JS Kabylie63%
×Draw22%
RC Relizane15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.88
RC Relizane
0.80

JS Kabylie creates 135% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 40 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
RC Relizane
0.80

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
RC Relizane
2.38

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
RC Relizane+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

RC Relizane →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
85%
JS Kabylie or RC Relizane
78%
Draw or RC Relizane
37%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
37%
RC Relizane wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
85%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
56%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
29%
RC Relizane 1+ goals
55%
RC Relizane 2+ goals
19%
RC Relizane 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
80%
RC Relizane (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

RC Relizane away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.38 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + RC Relizane defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.88

RC Relizane attack 0.80 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
63%
level
22%
RC Relizane scores more
15%

JS Kabylie at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs RC Relizane

JS Kabylie beat RC Relizane 3-0 in Ligue 1 on December 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 in Tizi-Ouzou.