JS Kabylie 2–0 NC Magra: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JS Kabylie

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NC Magra

7/10/2023

Ligue 1 · Round 29Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

JS Kabylie54%

×Draw27%

NC Magra19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS KabylieExpected goals in this matchNC Magra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.74

JS Kabylie

1.44

NC Magra

0.74

JS Kabylie creates 95% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 92 away

1.39

creates per match

0.68

0.79

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

JS Kabylie

1.39

NC Magra

0.68

allows per match

JS Kabylie

0.79

NC Magra

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par

NC Magra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

NC Magra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw

81%

JS Kabylie or NC Magra

73%

Draw or NC Magra

46%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+

27%

NC Magra wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals

76%

JS Kabylie 2+ goals

42%

JS Kabylie 3+ goals

18%

NC Magra 1+ goals

52%

NC Magra 2+ goals

17%

NC Magra 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)

74%

NC Magra (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

NC Magra away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + NC Magra defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

NC Magra attack 0.68 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

JS Kabylie scores more

54%

level

27%

NC Magra scores more

19%

JS Kabylie at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff