JS Kabylie 3–1 MC Oran: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

JS Kabylie

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

MC Oran

R. Berkane 59'

K. Boualia 18'

F. Nechat Djabri 6'

M. Boussalem 82'

4/16/2024

Ligue 1 · Round 23Stade du 1er Novembre 1954

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

JS Kabylie51%

×Draw28%

MC Oran21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS KabylieExpected goals in this matchMC Oran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.79

JS Kabylie

1.38

MC Oran

0.79

JS Kabylie creates 75% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 122 away

1.39

creates per match

0.78

0.79

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

JS Kabylie

1.39

MC Oran

0.78

allows per match

JS Kabylie

0.79

MC Oran

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par

MC Oran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

MC Oran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw

79%

JS Kabylie or MC Oran

72%

Draw or MC Oran

49%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+

25%

MC Oran wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals

75%

JS Kabylie 2+ goals

40%

JS Kabylie 3+ goals

16%

MC Oran 1+ goals

55%

MC Oran 2+ goals

19%

MC Oran 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)

70%

MC Oran (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

MC Oran away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.38 · 122 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + MC Oran defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.38

MC Oran attack 0.78 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

JS Kabylie scores more

51%

level

28%

MC Oran scores more

21%

JS Kabylie at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

6'

F. Nechat Djabri

11'

18'

K. Boualia

43'

46'

O. Ardji← M. Benayad

46'

O. Benatia← J. Oukaci

53'

59'

R. Berkane

72'

R. Aït-Atmane← Mamadou Traore

72'

E. Matouti← K. Boualia

72'

A. Chadli← Z. Motrani

72'

M. Senhadji← A. Benamara

72'

S. Bennai← A. Kerroum

77'

79'

A. Driss← A. Amriche

82'

M. Boussalem

85'

O. Gattal← F. Nechat Djabri

85'

D. Mouaki← R. Berkane

90+6'

90+7'

JS

MC

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Boualia

⚽

▼

Berkane

Manager: A. Aït Djoudi

72'▲R. Aït-Atmane←▼Mamadou Traore

72'▲E. Matouti←▼K. Boualia

79'▲A. Driss←▼A. Amriche

85'▲O. Gattal←▼F. Nechat Djabri

85'▲D. Mouaki←▼R. Berkane

JS Kabylie substitutes

Aït-AtmaneMatoutiDrissGattalMouaki

Manager: Y. Bouzidi

46'▲O. Ardji←▼M. Benayad

46'▲O. Benatia←▼J. Oukaci

72'▲A. Chadli←▼Z. Motrani

72'▲M. Senhadji←▼A. Benamara

72'▲S. Bennai←▼A. Kerroum

MC Oran substitutes

ArdjiBenatiaChadliSenhadjiBennai