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JS Kabylie vs MC Alger — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
MC Alger
MC Alger
1/2/2026Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 122+ matches

JS Kabylie43%
×Draw30%
MC Alger27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.17
MC Alger
0.85

JS Kabylie creates 38% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 124 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
MC Alger
0.92

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
MC Alger
0.94

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
MC Alger+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

MC Alger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
73%
JS Kabylie or MC Alger
70%
Draw or MC Alger
57%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
19%
MC Alger wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
69%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
33%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
11%
MC Alger 1+ goals
57%
MC Alger 2+ goals
21%
MC Alger 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
62%
MC Alger (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

MC Alger away — creates 0.92, concedes 0.94 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + MC Alger defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

MC Alger attack 0.92 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
43%
level
30%
MC Alger scores more
27%

JS Kabylie at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

JS Kabylie 1 – 1 MC Alger

JS Kabylie and MC Alger drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 2, 2026.