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JS Kabylie vs ASKO Kara — CAF Champions League 2019

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
ASKO Kara
ASKO Kara
10/15/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade du 8 Mai 1945

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

JS Kabylie66%
×Draw24%
ASKO Kara9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.56
ASKO Kara
0.41

JS Kabylie creates 280% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 7 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.25
ASKO Kara
0.57

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.25
ASKO Kara
1.86

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
ASKO Kara+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

ASKO Kara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–16%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–017%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
91%
JS Kabylie or ASKO Kara
76%
Draw or ASKO Kara
34%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
37%
ASKO Kara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
79%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
46%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
21%
ASKO Kara 1+ goals
34%
ASKO Kara 2+ goals
6%
ASKO Kara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
88%
ASKO Kara (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.25 · 16 matches

ASKO Kara away — creates 0.57, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.25 + ASKO Kara defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.56

ASKO Kara attack 0.57 + JS Kabylie defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
66%
level
24%
ASKO Kara scores more
9%

JS Kabylie at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JS Kabylie vs ASKO Kara

JS Kabylie and ASKO Kara drew 1-1 in CAF Champions League on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade du 8 Mai 1945 in Sétif.