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JS Kabylie vs AS Ain Mlila — Ligue 1 2018

JS Kabylie
JS Kabylie
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
AS Ain Mlila
AS Ain Mlila
1/25/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 (Tizi-Ouzou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

JS Kabylie57%
×Draw25%
AS Ain Mlila18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Kabylie
1.60
AS Ain Mlila
0.79

JS Kabylie creates 103% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 45 away

creates per match

JS Kabylie
1.39
AS Ain Mlila
0.78

allows per match

JS Kabylie
0.79
AS Ain Mlila
1.82

finishing

JS Kabylie+0.00on par
AS Ain Mlila+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Kabylie ↓

AS Ain Mlila →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

JS Kabylie or draw
82%
JS Kabylie or AS Ain Mlila
75%
Draw or AS Ain Mlila
43%

Winning margin

JS Kabylie wins by 2+
30%
AS Ain Mlila wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

JS Kabylie 1+ goals
80%
JS Kabylie 2+ goals
47%
JS Kabylie 3+ goals
22%
AS Ain Mlila 1+ goals
55%
AS Ain Mlila 2+ goals
19%
AS Ain Mlila 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

JS Kabylie (draw refunded)
75%
AS Ain Mlila (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Kabylie at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.79 · 122 matches

AS Ain Mlila away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.82 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Kabylie attack 1.39 + AS Ain Mlila defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.60

AS Ain Mlila attack 0.78 + JS Kabylie defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

JS Kabylie scores more
57%
level
25%
AS Ain Mlila scores more
18%

JS Kabylie at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "JS Kabylie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: JS Kabylie 1–1 AS Ain Mlila

JS Kabylie and AS Ain Mlila drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on January 25, 2019.

The match was played at Stade du 1er Novembre 1954 (Tizi-Ouzou).