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JS Hercules vs RoPS II — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JS Hercules
JS Hercules
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
RoPS II
RoPS II
8/15/2020Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 9Haukiputaan keskuskenttä

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

JS Hercules41%
×Draw23%
RoPS II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Hercules
1.76
RoPS II
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

JS Hercules
1.85
RoPS II
1.73

allows per match

JS Hercules
1.53
RoPS II
1.67

finishing

JS Hercules+0.00on par
RoPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Hercules ↓

RoPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

JS Hercules or draw
64%
JS Hercules or RoPS II
77%
Draw or RoPS II
59%

Winning margin

JS Hercules wins by 2+
22%
RoPS II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

JS Hercules 1+ goals
83%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
52%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
26%
RoPS II 1+ goals
80%
RoPS II 2+ goals
48%
RoPS II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

JS Hercules (draw refunded)
53%
RoPS II (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Hercules at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.53 · 86 matches

RoPS II away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Hercules attack 1.85 + RoPS II defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

RoPS II attack 1.73 + JS Hercules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JS Hercules scores more
41%
level
23%
RoPS II scores more
36%

JS Hercules at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JS Hercules 0–2 RoPS II

RoPS II beat JS Hercules 2-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at Haukiputaan keskuskenttä in Haukipudas.