JS Hercules 2–1 Kiisto: Result & Stats

JS Hercules

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kiisto

11/7/2020

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 17Oulu-lehti Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JS Hercules49%

×Draw23%

Kiisto28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JS HerculesExpected goals in this matchKiisto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.32

JS Hercules

1.81

Kiisto

1.32

JS Hercules creates 37% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 9 away

1.85

creates per match

1.11

1.53

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

JS Hercules

1.85

Kiisto

1.11

allows per match

JS Hercules

1.53

Kiisto

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JS Hercules+0.00on par

Kiisto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Hercules ↓

Kiisto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

JS Hercules or draw

72%

JS Hercules or Kiisto

77%

Draw or Kiisto

51%

Winning margin

JS Hercules wins by 2+

27%

Kiisto wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

JS Hercules 1+ goals

84%

JS Hercules 2+ goals

54%

JS Hercules 3+ goals

27%

Kiisto 1+ goals

73%

Kiisto 2+ goals

38%

Kiisto 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

JS Hercules (draw refunded)

64%

Kiisto (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Hercules at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.53 · 86 matches

Kiisto away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Hercules attack 1.85 + Kiisto defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.81

Kiisto attack 1.11 + JS Hercules defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

JS Hercules scores more

49%

level

23%

Kiisto scores more

28%

JS Hercules at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "JS Hercules will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff