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JS Hercules vs Inter Turku — Suomen Cup 2018

JS Hercules
JS Hercules
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Inter Turku
Inter Turku
3/17/2019Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 8th FinalsHeinäpään halli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

JS Hercules5%
×Draw11%
Inter Turku84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JS Hercules
0.59
Inter Turku
2.95

Inter Turku creates 400% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 22 away

creates per match

JS Hercules
0.33
Inter Turku
2.23

allows per match

JS Hercules
3.67
Inter Turku
0.86

finishing

JS Hercules+0.00on par
Inter Turku+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JS Hercules ↓

Inter Turku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–19%
0–213%
0–313%
0–49%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–22%
2–32%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

JS Hercules or draw
16%
JS Hercules or Inter Turku
89%
Draw or Inter Turku
95%

Winning margin

JS Hercules wins by 2+
1%
Inter Turku wins by 2+
65%

Team goals

JS Hercules 1+ goals
45%
JS Hercules 2+ goals
12%
JS Hercules 3+ goals
2%
Inter Turku 1+ goals
95%
Inter Turku 2+ goals
79%
Inter Turku 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

JS Hercules (draw refunded)
6%
Inter Turku (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JS Hercules at home — creates 0.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

Inter Turku away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JS Hercules attack 0.33 + Inter Turku defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.59

Inter Turku attack 2.23 + JS Hercules defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

JS Hercules scores more
5%
level
11%
Inter Turku scores more
84%

Inter Turku at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Inter Turku will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: JS Hercules 0–2 Inter Turku

Inter Turku beat JS Hercules 2-0 in Suomen Cup on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at Heinäpään halli in Oulu.