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JPS vs MyPa — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

JPS
JPS
FT
0 – 8
HT: 0 – 3
MyPa
MyPa
R. Polat 87'
T. Stadig 83'
V. Piira 76'
D. Kaiga 63', 36', 7'
O. Haimi 57'
S. Hernesniemi 34'
7/18/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 14Viitaniemi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JPS18%
×Draw16%
MyPa66%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JPS
1.65
MyPa
3.13

MyPa creates 90% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 14 away

creates per match

JPS
1.22
MyPa
2.14

allows per match

JPS
4.11
MyPa
2.07

finishing

JPS+0.00on par
MyPa+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JPS ↓

MyPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–34%
0–44%
1
1–01%
1–15%
1–27%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

JPS or draw
34%
JPS or MyPa
84%
Draw or MyPa
82%

Winning margin

JPS wins by 2+
8%
MyPa wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

JPS 1+ goals
81%
JPS 2+ goals
49%
JPS 3+ goals
23%
MyPa 1+ goals
95%
MyPa 2+ goals
81%
MyPa 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

JPS (draw refunded)
22%
MyPa (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JPS at home — creates 1.22, concedes 4.11 · 9 matches

MyPa away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JPS attack 1.22 + MyPa defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.65

MyPa attack 2.14 + JPS defence 4.11 → ÷2 → 3.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

JPS scores more
18%
level
16%
MyPa scores more
66%

MyPa at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "MyPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
D. Kaiga
13'
A. Medjadji
26'
A. Medjadji← A. Medjadji
34'
S. Hernesniemi
36'
D. Kaiga
57'
O. Haimi
61'
O. Kahkonen← T. Makinen
61'
T. Raikkonen← P. Pykalainen
63'
D. Kaiga
65'
T. Kinnunen
67'
T. Kinnunen← T. Kinnunen
67'
S. Arponen← S. Arponen
70'
D. Kaiga← D. Kaiga
76'
V. Piira
79'
O. Makela← O. Makela
79'
O. Eskelinen← O. Eskelinen
83'
T. Stadig
84'
V. Piira
87'
R. Polat

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JPS vs MyPa

MyPa beat JPS 8-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on July 18, 2025.

Goals: D. Kaiga (7', 36', 63'), S. Hernesniemi (34'), O. Haimi (57'), V. Piira (76'), T. Stadig (83'), R. Polat (87').

The match was played at Viitaniemi tekonurmi in Jyväskylä.