JPS 2–2 Kuopion Elo: Result & Stats

JPS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kuopion Elo

4/27/2024

Kakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 3Viitaniemi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JPS62%

×Draw18%

Kuopion Elo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JPSExpected goals in this matchKuopion Elo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.52

JPS

2.72

Kuopion Elo

1.52

JPS creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 22 away

2.67

creates per match

1.27

1.78

allows per match

2.77

creates per match

JPS

2.67

Kuopion Elo

1.27

allows per match

JPS

1.78

Kuopion Elo

2.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

JPS+0.00on par

Kuopion Elo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JPS ↓

Kuopion Elo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

JPS or draw

80%

JPS or Kuopion Elo

82%

Draw or Kuopion Elo

38%

Winning margin

JPS wins by 2+

42%

Kuopion Elo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

JPS 1+ goals

93%

JPS 2+ goals

75%

JPS 3+ goals

50%

Kuopion Elo 1+ goals

78%

Kuopion Elo 2+ goals

45%

Kuopion Elo 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

JPS (draw refunded)

76%

Kuopion Elo (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JPS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Kuopion Elo away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.77 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JPS attack 2.67 + Kuopion Elo defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.72

Kuopion Elo attack 1.27 + JPS defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

JPS scores more

62%

level

18%

Kuopion Elo scores more

20%

JPS at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "JPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff