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JPS vs GBK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

JPS
JPS
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
GBK
GBK
4/20/2024Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Group C - 2Viitaniemi tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

JPS53%
×Draw20%
GBK28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JPS
2.38
GBK
1.70

JPS creates 40% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 87 away

creates per match

JPS
2.67
GBK
1.62

allows per match

JPS
1.78
GBK
2.08

finishing

JPS+0.00on par
GBK+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JPS ↓

GBK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

JPS or draw
72%
JPS or GBK
80%
Draw or GBK
47%

Winning margin

JPS wins by 2+
32%
GBK wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

JPS 1+ goals
91%
JPS 2+ goals
68%
JPS 3+ goals
42%
GBK 1+ goals
82%
GBK 2+ goals
51%
GBK 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

JPS (draw refunded)
66%
GBK (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JPS at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

GBK away — creates 1.62, concedes 2.08 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JPS attack 2.67 + GBK defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.38

GBK attack 1.62 + JPS defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

JPS scores more
53%
level
20%
GBK scores more
28%

JPS at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "JPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: JPS 1–2 GBK

GBK beat JPS 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Viitaniemi tekonurmi in Jyväskylä.