Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jove Español vs Xerez Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs 2022

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Xerez Deportivo
Xerez Deportivo
6/22/2024Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offsTercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs · Promotion Play-offs - FinalsCiudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jove Español19%
×Draw51%
Xerez Deportivo30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
0.34
Xerez Deportivo
0.50

Xerez Deportivo creates 47% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Jove Español
0.67
Xerez Deportivo
0.67

allows per match

Jove Español
0.33
Xerez Deportivo
0.00

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Xerez Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Under
  • Under95
  • Over5

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

89%No
  • No89
  • Yes11

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Xerez Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–043%
0–122%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–11%
2–20%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (43%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
57%43%1.5
21%79%2.5
5%95%3.5
1%99%4.5
0%100%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
70%
Jove Español or Xerez Deportivo
49%
Draw or Xerez Deportivo
81%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
3%
Xerez Deportivo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
29%
Jove Español 2+ goals
5%
Jove Español 3+ goals
1%
Xerez Deportivo 1+ goals
39%
Xerez Deportivo 2+ goals
9%
Xerez Deportivo 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
38%
Xerez Deportivo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
4%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Xerez Deportivo away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 0.67 + Xerez Deportivo defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.34

Xerez Deportivo attack 0.67 + Jove Español defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 30%?"

Jove Español scores more
19%
level
51%
Xerez Deportivo scores more
30%

Xerez Deportivo at 30% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 30% does not mean "Xerez Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs: Jove Español 0–1 Xerez Deportivo

Xerez Deportivo beat Jove Español 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.