Jove Español 0–2 Villajoyosa: Result & Stats

Jove Español

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Villajoyosa

10/16/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 8Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Jove Español50%

×Draw28%

Villajoyosa21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jove EspañolExpected goals in this matchVillajoyosa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.75

Jove Español

1.33

Villajoyosa

0.75

Jove Español creates 77% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 32 away

1.10

creates per match

0.56

0.94

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Jove Español

1.10

Villajoyosa

0.56

allows per match

Jove Español

0.94

Villajoyosa

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par

Villajoyosa+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Villajoyosa →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–017%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw

79%

Jove Español or Villajoyosa

72%

Draw or Villajoyosa

50%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+

24%

Villajoyosa wins by 2+

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals

74%

Jove Español 2+ goals

38%

Jove Español 3+ goals

15%

Villajoyosa 1+ goals

53%

Villajoyosa 2+ goals

17%

Villajoyosa 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)

71%

Villajoyosa (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Villajoyosa away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Villajoyosa defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Villajoyosa attack 0.56 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 50%?"

Jove Español scores more

50%

level

28%

Villajoyosa scores more

21%

Jove Español at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Villajoyosa

Villajoyosa beat Jove Español 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.

Jove Español vs Villajoyosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Jove Español vs Villajoyosa