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Jove Español vs Saguntino — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Jove Español
Jove Español
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Saguntino
Saguntino
11/13/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 12Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Jove Español36%
×Draw29%
Saguntino34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
1.10
Saguntino
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 80 away

creates per match

Jove Español
1.10
Saguntino
1.18

allows per match

Jove Español
0.94
Saguntino
1.09

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Saguntino+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Saguntino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
66%
Jove Español or Saguntino
71%
Draw or Saguntino
64%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
15%
Saguntino wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
67%
Jove Español 2+ goals
30%
Jove Español 3+ goals
10%
Saguntino 1+ goals
65%
Saguntino 2+ goals
29%
Saguntino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
51%
Saguntino (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Saguntino away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Saguntino defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.10

Saguntino attack 1.18 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Jove Español scores more
36%
level
29%
Saguntino scores more
34%

Jove Español at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6: Jove Español 0–2 Saguntino

Saguntino beat Jove Español 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 13, 2021.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig in San Vicente del Raspeig.