Jove Español vs Paterna: Preview & Prediction

Jove Español

CANC

22:00

Paterna

5/16/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 38Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Jove Español43%

×Draw30%

Paterna27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jove EspañolExpected goals in this matchPaterna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.86

Jove Español

1.18

Paterna

0.86

Jove Español creates 37% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 27 away

1.10

creates per match

0.78

0.94

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Jove Español

1.10

Paterna

0.78

allows per match

Jove Español

0.94

Paterna

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par

Paterna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Paterna →

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw

73%

Jove Español or Paterna

70%

Draw or Paterna

57%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+

19%

Paterna wins by 2+

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals

69%

Jove Español 2+ goals

33%

Jove Español 3+ goals

12%

Paterna 1+ goals

58%

Paterna 2+ goals

21%

Paterna 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)

62%

Paterna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Paterna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Paterna defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.18

Paterna attack 0.78 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Jove Español scores more

43%

level

30%

Paterna scores more

27%

Jove Español at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jove Español vs Paterna — Match Preview

Jove Español face Paterna on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Jove Español host Paterna at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Jove Español vs Paterna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Jove Español vs Paterna — Match Preview