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Jove Español vs Benigànim — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Jove Español
Jove Español
CANC
00:00
Benigànim
Benigànim
4/5/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 32Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Jove Español62%
×Draw22%
Benigànim16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jove Español
1.88
Benigànim
0.82

Jove Español creates 129% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 44 away

creates per match

Jove Español
1.10
Benigànim
0.70

allows per match

Jove Español
0.94
Benigànim
2.66

finishing

Jove Español+0.00on par
Benigànim+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jove Español ↓

Benigànim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jove Español or draw
84%
Jove Español or Benigànim
78%
Draw or Benigànim
38%

Winning margin

Jove Español wins by 2+
37%
Benigànim wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jove Español 1+ goals
85%
Jove Español 2+ goals
56%
Jove Español 3+ goals
29%
Benigànim 1+ goals
56%
Benigànim 2+ goals
20%
Benigànim 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jove Español (draw refunded)
80%
Benigànim (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jove Español at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.94 · 110 matches

Benigànim away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.66 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jove Español attack 1.10 + Benigànim defence 2.66 → ÷2 → 1.88

Benigànim attack 0.70 + Jove Español defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jove Español scores more
62%
level
22%
Benigànim scores more
16%

Jove Español at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jove Español will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Jove Español host Benigànim

April 5, 2020: Jove Español take on Benigànim in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Jove Español host Benigànim at Ciudad Deportiva de San Vicente del Raspeig.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.