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Joseense vs Barretos — League #1062 2026

Joseense
Joseense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Barretos
Barretos
J. V. Salles Nogueira 84'
Dioran 53'
David 90+5' (pen), 74'
3/6/2024League #1062League #1062 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Joseense39%
×Draw28%
Barretos33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Joseense
1.25
Barretos
1.13

Joseense creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Joseense
1.50
Barretos
1.00

allows per match

Joseense
1.25
Barretos
1.00

finishing

Joseense+0.00on par
Barretos+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Joseense ↓

Barretos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Joseense or draw
67%
Joseense or Barretos
72%
Draw or Barretos
61%

Winning margin

Joseense wins by 2+
17%
Barretos wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Joseense 1+ goals
71%
Joseense 2+ goals
36%
Joseense 3+ goals
13%
Barretos 1+ goals
68%
Barretos 2+ goals
31%
Barretos 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Joseense (draw refunded)
54%
Barretos (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Joseense at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Barretos away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Joseense attack 1.50 + Barretos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Barretos attack 1.00 + Joseense defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Joseense scores more
39%
level
28%
Barretos scores more
33%

Joseense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Joseense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
Dioran
74'
David
84'
J. V. Salles Nogueira
90+5'
DavidPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Joseense vs Barretos

Joseense and Barretos drew 2-2 in League #1062 on March 6, 2024.

Goals: Dioran (53'), David (74', 90+5' pen), J. V. Salles Nogueira (84').

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Professor Dario Rodrigues Leite in Guaratinguetá, São Paulo.