Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3–0 Taubaté U20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

FT

3 – 0

Taubaté U20

6/29/2024

Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 2Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2062%

×Draw20%

Taubaté U2018%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20Expected goals in this matchTaubaté U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.02

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

2.10

Taubaté U20

1.02

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 106% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

1.73

creates per match

1.13

0.91

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

Taubaté U20

1.13

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

0.91

Taubaté U20

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Taubaté U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Taubaté U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw

82%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Taubaté U20

80%

Draw or Taubaté U20

38%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

38%

Taubaté U20 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

88%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

62%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

35%

Taubaté U20 1+ goals

64%

Taubaté U20 2+ goals

27%

Taubaté U20 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

78%

Taubaté U20 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Taubaté U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Taubaté U20 defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.10

Taubaté U20 attack 1.13 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

62%

level

20%

Taubaté U20 scores more

18%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff