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Jose Bonifacio EC U20 vs Rio Preto U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Preto U20
Rio Preto U20
Jairo 45'
5/31/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2058%
×Draw22%
Rio Preto U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.86
Rio Preto U20
0.96

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 94% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.73
Rio Preto U20
1.00

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
0.91
Rio Preto U20
2.00

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par
Rio Preto U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 52No: 4852%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Rio Preto U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw
81%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Rio Preto U20
78%
Draw or Rio Preto U20
42%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+
34%
Rio Preto U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals
84%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals
55%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals
28%
Rio Preto U20 1+ goals
62%
Rio Preto U20 2+ goals
25%
Rio Preto U20 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Rio Preto U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Rio Preto U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Rio Preto U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Rio Preto U20 attack 1.00 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more
58%
level
22%
Rio Preto U20 scores more
19%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Jairo

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1–0 Rio Preto U20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 beat Rio Preto U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on May 31, 2024.

Goals: Jairo (45').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga in José Bonifácio, São Paulo.