Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3–0 Olimpia U20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Olimpia U20

G. Falveno Braga 69'

J. Marques da Silva 40'

L. Antonio Calmon Souza Borges 36'

6/14/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 10Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2061%

×Draw23%

Olimpia U2016%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20Expected goals in this matchOlimpia U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

0.76

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.77

Olimpia U20

0.76

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 133% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.73

creates per match

0.60

0.91

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

Olimpia U20

0.60

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

0.91

Olimpia U20

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Olimpia U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Olimpia U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw

84%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Olimpia U20

77%

Draw or Olimpia U20

39%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

35%

Olimpia U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

83%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

53%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

26%

Olimpia U20 1+ goals

53%

Olimpia U20 2+ goals

18%

Olimpia U20 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

80%

Olimpia U20 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Olimpia U20 away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Olimpia U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.77

Olimpia U20 attack 0.60 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

61%

level

23%

Olimpia U20 scores more

16%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

L. Antonio Calmon Souza Borges

40'

J. Marques da Silva

69'

G. Falveno Braga

88'

G. Mendonca dos Santos

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff