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Jose Bonifacio EC U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
Jose Bonifacio EC U20
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Novorizontino U20
Novorizontino U20
Victor Gabriel 49'
Vanderlei 45'
7/20/2024Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · 2nd Phase - 3Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2033%
×Draw25%
Novorizontino U2041%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.32
Novorizontino U20
1.50

Novorizontino U20 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 25 away

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
1.73
Novorizontino U20
2.08

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20
0.91
Novorizontino U20
0.92

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par
Novorizontino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Novorizontino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw
59%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Novorizontino U20
75%
Draw or Novorizontino U20
67%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+
15%
Novorizontino U20 wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals
73%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals
38%
Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals
15%
Novorizontino U20 1+ goals
78%
Novorizontino U20 2+ goals
44%
Novorizontino U20 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)
45%
Novorizontino U20 (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Novorizontino U20 away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.92 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Novorizontino U20 defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.32

Novorizontino U20 attack 2.08 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more
33%
level
25%
Novorizontino U20 scores more
41%

Novorizontino U20 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Novorizontino U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
Vanderlei
49'
Victor Gabriel

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Jose Bonifacio EC U20 0–2 Novorizontino U20

Novorizontino U20 beat Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on July 20, 2024.

Goals: Vanderlei (45'), Victor Gabriel (49').

The match was played at Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga in José Bonifácio, São Paulo.