Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3–2 Corinthians U20

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Corinthians U20

H. Freitas Caetano 90+3'

J. de Lima 35'

A. Robson 19'

T. Lisboa 90+5'

A. Luiz 79'

9/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 3rd Phase - 5Estádio Antônio Pereira Braga

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Jose Bonifacio EC U2044%

×Draw26%

Corinthians U2031%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jose Bonifacio EC U20Expected goals in this matchCorinthians U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.19

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.47

Corinthians U20

1.19

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 24 away

1.73

creates per match

1.46

0.91

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

1.73

Corinthians U20

1.46

allows per match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20

0.91

Corinthians U20

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jose Bonifacio EC U20+0.00on par

Corinthians U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 ↓

Corinthians U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or draw

69%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 or Corinthians U20

74%

Draw or Corinthians U20

56%

Winning margin

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 wins by 2+

21%

Corinthians U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 1+ goals

77%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 2+ goals

43%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 3+ goals

18%

Corinthians U20 1+ goals

70%

Corinthians U20 2+ goals

33%

Corinthians U20 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 (draw refunded)

59%

Corinthians U20 (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at home — creates 1.73, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Corinthians U20 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.21 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 attack 1.73 + Corinthians U20 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.47

Corinthians U20 attack 1.46 + Jose Bonifacio EC U20 defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 scores more

44%

level

26%

Corinthians U20 scores more

31%

Jose Bonifacio EC U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jose Bonifacio EC U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

A. Robson

35'

J. de Lima

79'

A. Luiz

90+3'

H. Freitas Caetano

90+5'

T. Lisboa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff