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Jošanica vs Mladi Radnik — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Jošanica
Jošanica
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Mladi Radnik
Mladi Radnik
9/2/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 3Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Jošanica51%
×Draw27%
Mladi Radnik23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jošanica
1.46
Mladi Radnik
0.88

Jošanica creates 66% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 87 away

creates per match

Jošanica
1.29
Mladi Radnik
0.76

allows per match

Jošanica
1.00
Mladi Radnik
1.64

finishing

Jošanica+0.00on par
Mladi Radnik+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jošanica ↓

Mladi Radnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Jošanica or draw
77%
Jošanica or Mladi Radnik
73%
Draw or Mladi Radnik
49%

Winning margin

Jošanica wins by 2+
25%
Mladi Radnik wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Jošanica 1+ goals
77%
Jošanica 2+ goals
43%
Jošanica 3+ goals
18%
Mladi Radnik 1+ goals
59%
Mladi Radnik 2+ goals
22%
Mladi Radnik 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jošanica (draw refunded)
69%
Mladi Radnik (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jošanica at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 70 matches

Mladi Radnik away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.64 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jošanica attack 1.29 + Mladi Radnik defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Mladi Radnik attack 0.76 + Jošanica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jošanica scores more
51%
level
27%
Mladi Radnik scores more
23%

Jošanica at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jošanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Jošanica 1–1 Mladi Radnik

Jošanica and Mladi Radnik drew 1-1 in Srpska Liga - West on September 2, 2023.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.