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Jošanica vs Mihajlovac — Srpska Liga - West 2019

Jošanica
Jošanica
FT
2 – 1
Mihajlovac
Mihajlovac
8/19/2023Srpska Liga - WestSrpska Liga - West · West - 1Caizcoin Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Jošanica57%
×Draw25%
Mihajlovac18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jošanica
1.63
Mihajlovac
0.80

Jošanica creates 104% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 30 away

creates per match

Jošanica
1.29
Mihajlovac
0.60

allows per match

Jošanica
1.00
Mihajlovac
1.97

finishing

Jošanica+0.00on par
Mihajlovac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jošanica ↓

Mihajlovac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Jošanica or draw
82%
Jošanica or Mihajlovac
75%
Draw or Mihajlovac
43%

Winning margin

Jošanica wins by 2+
31%
Mihajlovac wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Jošanica 1+ goals
80%
Jošanica 2+ goals
48%
Jošanica 3+ goals
22%
Mihajlovac 1+ goals
55%
Mihajlovac 2+ goals
19%
Mihajlovac 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Jošanica (draw refunded)
76%
Mihajlovac (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jošanica at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 70 matches

Mihajlovac away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jošanica attack 1.29 + Mihajlovac defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.63

Mihajlovac attack 0.60 + Jošanica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Jošanica scores more
57%
level
25%
Mihajlovac scores more
18%

Jošanica at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Jošanica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - West: Jošanica 2–1 Mihajlovac

Jošanica beat Mihajlovac 2-1 in Srpska Liga - West on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Caizcoin Arena in Novi Pazar.