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JOS Watergraafsmeer vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
5/14/2023Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 32Sportpark Drie Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer36%
×Draw23%
OJC Rosmalen41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.61
OJC Rosmalen
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 51 away

creates per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.38
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
2.03
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JOS Watergraafsmeer ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

JOS Watergraafsmeer or draw
59%
JOS Watergraafsmeer or OJC Rosmalen
77%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
64%

Winning margin

JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
18%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
80%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
48%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
22%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
82%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
52%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
47%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JOS Watergraafsmeer at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.03 · 37 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.38 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.61

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
36%
level
23%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
41%

OJC Rosmalen at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "OJC Rosmalen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: JOS Watergraafsmeer vs OJC Rosmalen

OJC Rosmalen beat JOS Watergraafsmeer 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 14, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Drie Burg in Amsterdam.