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JOS Watergraafsmeer vs Kampong — Derde Divisie - Relegation Round 2022

JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
FT
1 – 0
Kampong
Kampong
6/8/2023Derde Divisie - Relegation RoundDerde Divisie - Relegation Round · Relegation RoundSportpark Drie Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer39%
×Draw27%
Kampong34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.32
Kampong
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.89
Kampong
0.75

allows per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.67
Kampong
0.75

finishing

JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par
Kampong+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JOS Watergraafsmeer ↓

Kampong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

JOS Watergraafsmeer or draw
66%
JOS Watergraafsmeer or Kampong
73%
Draw or Kampong
61%

Winning margin

JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
18%
Kampong wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
73%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
38%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
15%
Kampong 1+ goals
70%
Kampong 2+ goals
34%
Kampong 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
54%
Kampong (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JOS Watergraafsmeer at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

Kampong away — creates 0.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.89 + Kampong defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.32

Kampong attack 0.75 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
39%
level
27%
Kampong scores more
34%

JOS Watergraafsmeer at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "JOS Watergraafsmeer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Relegation Round: JOS Watergraafsmeer 1–0 Kampong

JOS Watergraafsmeer beat Kampong 1-0 in Derde Divisie - Relegation Round on June 8, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark Drie Burg in Amsterdam.