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JOS Watergraafsmeer vs Hoogland — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

JOS Watergraafsmeer
JOS Watergraafsmeer
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Hoogland
Hoogland
4/24/2022Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Zondag - 27Sportpark Drie Burg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

JOS Watergraafsmeer44%
×Draw22%
Hoogland34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.89
Hoogland
1.65

JOS Watergraafsmeer creates 15% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 31 away

creates per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
1.38
Hoogland
1.26

allows per match

JOS Watergraafsmeer
2.03
Hoogland
2.39

finishing

JOS Watergraafsmeer+0.00on par
Hoogland+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

JOS Watergraafsmeer ↓

Hoogland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

JOS Watergraafsmeer or draw
66%
JOS Watergraafsmeer or Hoogland
78%
Draw or Hoogland
56%

Winning margin

JOS Watergraafsmeer wins by 2+
24%
Hoogland wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

JOS Watergraafsmeer 1+ goals
85%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 2+ goals
56%
JOS Watergraafsmeer 3+ goals
29%
Hoogland 1+ goals
81%
Hoogland 2+ goals
49%
Hoogland 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

JOS Watergraafsmeer (draw refunded)
56%
Hoogland (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

JOS Watergraafsmeer at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.03 · 37 matches

Hoogland away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.39 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

JOS Watergraafsmeer attack 1.38 + Hoogland defence 2.39 → ÷2 → 1.89

Hoogland attack 1.26 + JOS Watergraafsmeer defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

JOS Watergraafsmeer scores more
44%
level
22%
Hoogland scores more
34%

JOS Watergraafsmeer at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "JOS Watergraafsmeer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: JOS Watergraafsmeer 1–3 Hoogland

Hoogland beat JOS Watergraafsmeer 3-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Sportpark Drie Burg in Amsterdam.