Jorge Wilstermann 0–1 San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Jorge Wilstermann

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

Neto Acará 10'

7/21/2024

Primera División · Clausura - 6Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann51%

×Draw23%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Jorge WilstermannExpected goals in this matchSan Antonio Bulo Bulo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.22

Jorge Wilstermann

1.81

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.22

Jorge Wilstermann creates 48% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 41 away

1.75

creates per match

1.34

1.09

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.75

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.34

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann

1.09

San Antonio Bulo Bulo

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par

San Antonio Bulo Bulo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

San Antonio Bulo Bulo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw

74%

Jorge Wilstermann or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

77%

Draw or San Antonio Bulo Bulo

49%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+

28%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals

84%

Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals

54%

Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals

27%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 1+ goals

70%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 2+ goals

34%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)

66%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.09 · 126 matches

San Antonio Bulo Bulo away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.88 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.75 + San Antonio Bulo Bulo defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Antonio Bulo Bulo attack 1.34 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more

51%

level

23%

San Antonio Bulo Bulo scores more

26%

Jorge Wilstermann at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

J. Vera

San Antonio Bulo Bulo · G

8.6

Match Events

10'

Neto Acará

46'

A. Cáceres← R. Cardozo

46'

J. Mamani← C. Machado

49'

Leonardo Montenegro

52'

Neto Acará

52'

M. De Lima← L. Montenegro

52'

A. Sánchez← Neto Acará

57'

Gonzalo Castillo

66'

Fernando CastellónGoal cancelled

69'

P. Velasco← M. Castellón

73'

Jerry AlacaRed card cancelled

74'

Rodrigo Amaral

74'

Jerry Alaca

77'

Gustavo Olguín

83'

A. Fernández← J. Alaca

83'

S. Viveros← Daniel Passira

86'

Pablo Meza

90+9'

Josué Mamani

90+1'

Alex CaceresPenalty confirmed

90+6'

Sebastián Viveros

90+2'

Huberth Sánchez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JorgeSan

Overview

61%Possession39%

19Total Shots11

5Corners7

9Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots11

6On Target3

6Off Target7

7Blocked1

10Inside Box5

9Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

320Total Passes199

249Accurate Passes142

78%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls12

3Yellow Cards6

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0