Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Jorge Wilstermann vs Club Universitario — Primera División 2019

Jorge Wilstermann
Jorge Wilstermann
FT
5 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Club Universitario
Club Universitario
8/20/2022Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 11Estadio Félix Capriles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Jorge Wilstermann62%
×Draw22%
Club Universitario16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jorge Wilstermann
1.90
Club Universitario
0.86

Jorge Wilstermann creates 121% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 22 away

creates per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.74
Club Universitario
0.59

allows per match

Jorge Wilstermann
1.14
Club Universitario
2.05

finishing

Jorge Wilstermann+0.00on par
Club Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jorge Wilstermann ↓

Club Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Jorge Wilstermann or draw
84%
Jorge Wilstermann or Club Universitario
78%
Draw or Club Universitario
38%

Winning margin

Jorge Wilstermann wins by 2+
37%
Club Universitario wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Jorge Wilstermann 1+ goals
85%
Jorge Wilstermann 2+ goals
56%
Jorge Wilstermann 3+ goals
29%
Club Universitario 1+ goals
58%
Club Universitario 2+ goals
21%
Club Universitario 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Jorge Wilstermann (draw refunded)
79%
Club Universitario (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jorge Wilstermann at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.14 · 124 matches

Club Universitario away — creates 0.59, concedes 2.05 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jorge Wilstermann attack 1.74 + Club Universitario defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.90

Club Universitario attack 0.59 + Jorge Wilstermann defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Jorge Wilstermann scores more
62%
level
22%
Club Universitario scores more
16%

Jorge Wilstermann at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Jorge Wilstermann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Jorge Wilstermann 5–1 Club Universitario

Jorge Wilstermann beat Club Universitario 5-1 in Primera División on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Félix Capriles in Cochabamba.